All eyes will be on Hollywood Thursday morning as the
Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences announce the nominations for
their 87th annual awards. What has become a yearlong game for Oscar
prognosticators goes from marathon to sprint when, for the first time, all 24
categories will be read live at the announcement. No more waiting for next
day’s newspaper or scrambling to Oscar.org to find out which songs and
documentaries were nominated. Now we can all scream at the television or
internet stream when our favorite costumes are snubbed. Will there be such
screaming though? The hope that a bit of anarchy will shake things up and even
sneak in a favorite underdog or two is part of the appeal, exemplified by the
pleasured shrieks of publicists in the room when their horse comes in. Will it
be a morning of surprises or as predictable as many “experts” hope
for?
BEST SUPPORTING
ACTOR
The category that may be the easiest to predict among the
eight majors may also be the one that offers the greatest shock. J.K. Simmons
(“Whiplash“), Edward Norton (“Birdman“), Mark Ruffalo
(“Foxcatcher“) and Ethan Hawke (“Boyhood“) should be as
locked in as anyone. Robert Duvall (“The Judge“) was the fifth Screen
Actors Guild nominee, but they have only had a perfect match twice (2009-10) in
20 years. Outdoing Duvall 10-4 in nominations amongst the critics and guilds
has been Josh Brolin (“Inherent Vice“). Even in a film that has had
trouble connecting with some as a whole, Brolin’s work has always been singled
out as a positive. Neither Duvall nor Brolin would be much of a surprise for
the fifth slot. But what if the Academy decides to throw a curve ball? Forget
about Andy Serkis (“Dawn of the Planet of the Apes“) as it seems no
voice work or digital performance capture will be nominated in our lifetime. What
about Riz Ahmed (“Nightcrawler“), whose bundle of nerves and
insecurity as Jake Gyllenhaal‘s shotgun rider recalls Ethan Hawke from
“Training Day“; a role which garnered him his first Oscar nomination
after receiving support from no group except SAG? Or Alfred Molina as John
Lithgow’s husband in the heartbreaking “Love is Strange”? The
respected actor was considered a favorite to snag nominations in 2002
(“Frida“) and 2009 (“An Education“) but came up empty both
times. Maybe this year he will be the surprise honoree.
Josh Brolin, “Inherent Vice”
Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood”
Edward Norton, “Birdman”
Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”
BEST SUPPORTING
ACTRESS
The other Supporting category is not as easy to lock down
for certain, but there is some history that favors most of the potential
nominees. Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”) and Emma Stone (“Birdman”)
should be in. Keira Knightley (“The Imitation Game“) is a solid #3 on
that list. The nominations of the past suggest that the next best odds belong
to Jessica Chastain (“A Most Violent Year“) and Meryl Streep
(“Into the Woods“). Streep got a SAG nod. Chastain did not. SAG’s
fifth choice was Naomi Watts (“St. Vincent“) who, unless has her work
in “Birdman” thrown into the mix amongst voters, may be the easiest
to dismiss. The only acclaim that Streep has received outside of nominations by
SAG, the Golden Globes and the Broadcast Film Critics Association (considered a
holy trilogy by some) has been a nomination from the Australian critics. So is
this just a case of uninspired voting or will Streep receive her 19th Oscar
nomination? I believe Chastain will get her third in four years regardless, but
who could replace Streep? The field is abuzz with potential. There has been a
groundswell of support for Tilda Swinton (“Snowpiercer“). Other potentials
include Laura Dern (“Wild“) and LA Film Critics winner Agata Kulesza
(“Ida“). Rising as of late has been Rene Russo
(“Nightcrawler”), who just added a BAFTA nomination to her resume;
something only the top three on this list can also boast. Then again, as we
have seen in the past with the likes of Jacki Weaver (2012’s “Silver
Linings Playbook”) and Maggie Gyllenhaal (2009’s “Crazy Heart”)
a nominee can appear out of nowhere simply for having their film out there at
the right time. So expect some BIG shrieks if you hear the names of either
Carmen Ejogo (“Selma“) or Sienna Miller (“American Sniper“)
called out.
Patricia Arquette “Boyhood”
Jessica Chastain “A Most Violent Year”
Keira Knightley “The Imitation Game”
Rene Russo “Nightcrawler”
Emma Stone “Birdman”
BEST ORIGINAL
SCREENPLAY
Of all the major categories, this is the one that has been
notoriously the hardest to predict. Films disqualified by the Writers Guild
eliminate a major forerunner and, with the exception of Woody Allen, even
scripts by major filmmakers have been snubbed when they seemed like locks (see
“Inside Llewyn Davis” and “The Master“). The locks should hold
for “The Grand Budapest Hotel“, “Birdman” and “Boyhood,”
but after that everything is up for grabs. The fourth slot here should have
been reserved for Damien Chazelle‘s “Whiplash” but due to some
questionable category shifting we can look to that over on the Adapted side.
That bumps up Dan Gilroy‘s “Nightcrawler”. After that it is a roll of
the dice. Your fifth Writers Guild nominee is “Foxcatcher” which both
benefitted from “Birdman” being disallowed and bolstered by
“Whiplash” still being considered an original by the WGA.
A real longshot would be John Michael McDonagh’s
“Calvary” which was the fifth choice by the Chicago Film Critics
Association but was also disqualified by the WGA. Will “Selma” be
rewarded or punished for its off-base controversy about who really deserved
credit for the Civil Rights Movement? J.C. Chandor’s first film, “Margin
Call” shocked everyone when it received a Screenplay nod in 2011 over
candidates like “The Tree of Life“, “50/50” and “Win
Win”. Then last year Robert Redford was notably snubbed out of Best Actor
for Chandor’s “All Is Lost“. Don’t dismiss the history of the author
of “Mr. Turner“. Also disallowed from WGA competition, AMPAS has
nominated Mike Leigh in this category five times, including his last three
films and four of his last five.
“Birdman” by Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás
Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr., & Armando Bo
“Boyhood” by Richard
Linklater
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” by Wes Anderson
“Mr. Turner” by Mike Leigh
“Nightcrawler” by Dan Gilroy
BEST ADAPTED
SCREENPLAY
“Gone Girl” and “The Imitation Game”
look as good as we get to locks. Assuming it can get through the confusion of
the category switch, “Whiplash” looks like a safe bet as well. Last
week, the final two slots were a dogfight between “Inherent Vice”,
“Wild” and “The Theory of Everything“; the latter of which
was disallowed by the WGA. All three times that PTA was nominated for a
Screenplay Oscar it was preceded by a WGA nod. “The Master” was
Anderson’s fourth WGA nomination, but it was snubbed by the Academy. That would
make everything easy if it wasn’t for another script to make a serious
challenge for one of the final slots. Jason Hall’s rather limited screenplay
for “American Sniper” is also receiving controversy for its omissions
(by anyone actually paying attention.) The WGA clearly was not and slotted it
in. Moreover, 25-of-27 films since 2002 that were nominated by the Producers,
Writers and Directors Guilds received Adapted Screenplay nominations. (Only
“The Dark Knight” and David Fincher‘s “The Girl with the Dragon
Tattoo” did not.) Nick Hornby‘s terrific adaptation of “Wild”
also got a WGA nod. But would it have if “The Theory of Everything”
was not disqualified? Probably, since “Theory” would have taken the
slot from “Guardians of the Galaxy“.
“American Sniper” by Jason Hall
“Gone Girl” by Gillian Flynn
“The Imitation Game” by Graham Moore
“Whiplash” by Damien Chazelle
“Wild” by Nick Hornby
BEST ACTOR
What looked to be an open and shut case by Thanksgiving of
the five eventual nominees was shaken up when everyone saw how great David
Oyelowo was as Martin Luther King in “Selma.” At the time, Steve Carell
(“Foxcatcher”) still looked good and Jake Gyllenhaal (“Nightcrawler”)
was an underdog. Those two shifted pretty radically in December though Carell
got the SAG nod and Oyelowo didn’t. Some believe because of an absence of
screeners on the recently completed film at the time. The season moved on and
Michael Keaton (“Birdman”), Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of
Evetything”) and Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Imitation Game”)
continued to behave as locks with the suddenly surging Gyllenhaal matching and
even exceeding every step of the way. Though much support has also been offered
for Ralph Fiennes (“The Grand Budapest Hotel”), Oyelowo has remained
a strong candidate. Then the Directors Guild announced. Suddenly “American
Sniper” is a serious player for nominations. Nominations like this often
come in pairs, so keep an eye on Supporting Actress. If Carmen Ejogo makes it
in, Oyelowo should follow. If Sienna Miller is nominated, then you can bet
Bradley Cooper will be as well. Of course, both actresses are still a longshot,
but now Cooper no longer is, despite only receiving nominations from the
Phoenix and Denver Film Critics.
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game”
Jake Gyllenhaal, “Nightcrawler”
Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
David Oyelowo, “Selma”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything”
BEST ACTRESS
You want locks for this category? We got ’em. Julianne Moore
(“Still Alice“), Rosamund Pike (“Gone Girl”) and Reese
Witherspoon (“Wild”) should all be read off Thursday morning.
Felicity Jones (“The Theory of Everything”) looks like an unshakable
#4 and if there was some justice, Marion Cotillard (“Two Days, One
Night”) would get the fifth slot. Winner of the NY Film Critics Award as
well as the National Society of Film Critics and a lot of other nominations
elsewhere, Cotillard looks to lose out on a nomination thanks to the aggressive
campaigning by the folks behind Jennifer Aniston and “Cake”. No
unlikely surprises for Scarlett Johansson (“Under the Skin“), Essie
Davis (“The Babadook“) or back-to-back Golden Globes winner for Best
Actress in a Comedy or Musical, Amy Adams (“Big Eyes“). Nope, this
looks to be a year where politicking is going to be front-and-center over
what’s deserving, which someone once told us has nothing to do with it.
Especially when it comes to the Oscars.
Jennifer Aniston, “Cake”
Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore, “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”
BEST DIRECTOR
Unlike the other categories, none of the favorites have the
kind of 100% authority that history has dictated to us. Mostly because of the
infamous Ben Affleck/Kathryn Bigelow snubbing of 2012. Assuming the Academy is
determined to never let that happen again, we could assume that Wes Anderson
(“The Grand Budapest Hotel”), Richard Linklater (“Boyhood”)
and Alejandro G. Iñárritu (“Birdman”) are in. Especially after
receiving nods from the Directors Guild. After that, the two best choices to
round things out were David Fincher (“Gone Girl”) and Ava DuVernay
(“Selma”). Guess who showed up to mess with things? That’s right,
“American Sniper” and its director Clint Eastwood, now a DGA nominee
for the fourth time. His previous three nominations for “Unforgiven“,
“Mystic River” and “Million Dollar Baby” all led to Oscar
nods. This thought led to some considerable outrage over the DGA’s choices,
though not as much as Morten Tyldum (“The Imitation Game”) taking a
slot from either Fincher or DuVernay. St. Louis, Australia and the Golden
Satellites were the only groups to laud Tyldum before the DGA. The good news
for those fearing a DuVernay snub is that the DGA only has a 72.6% match rate
with Oscar since 2002 and have only matched perfectly twice in that time (2005
& 2009), so somebody is not getting nominated there in all likelihood.
Could it still be Fincher or DuVernay? Or will Damien Chazelle get a
directorial nod to go along with his screenplay nod? It would be really
unfortunate if everyone just threw up their hands and ignored Ava DuVernay for
doing precisely what they thought Angelina Jolie was going to do with
“Unbroken.” telling an Oscar-worthy story of a true American hero.
Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Ava DuVernay, “Selma”
Clint Eastwood, “American Sniper”
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, “Birdman”
Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
BEST PICTURE
It’s clear that “Boyhood” and “The Grand
Budapest Hotel” are stone cold locks. “Birdman” and “The
Imitation Game” are very close to it. If the year were 2008,
“American Sniper” amazingly enough would probably be your fifth
nominee. What these five films have in common is that they are the ones to
receive nominations from each of the Producers, Writers and Directors’ Guilds.
Only three films out of 44 have failed to receive a Best Picture nomination
after that. And two of those three (“The Dark Knight”, “The
Diving Bell and the Butterfly”) were in the era when only five Best
Picture nominees were chosen. It would be some poetic justice if Eastwood’s
“American Sniper” went the way of Fincher’s “The Girl with the
Dragon Tattoo”. Assuming it does not though, how many other nominees will
there be? I was already under the impression that nine was going to be the
magic number this year. But now with “Sniper” (which was my #10 even
before Eastwood’s DGA nod) I’m convinced we will have an even 10.
James Marsh’s “The Theory of Everything” has a
similar pedigree to “The Imitation Game” and makes for a solid sixth
selection. “Whiplash” has certainly done well enough to be
comfortable as a seventh choice. Can the argument be made for “Selma”
to be as high as 8th on this list when so many are doubting its chances after
the Guild snubs? Very easily actually. Consider these films:
(2013) “Philomena“
(2012) “Amour“
(2011) “The Tree of Life” AND “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
(2010) “Winter's Bone“
(2009) “The Blind Side”
What do they have in common? Not a single PGA, DGA or WGA
nomination between them and yet all were nominated for Best Picture in the era
of the nominee expansion. So it is possible. Very possible. Even Clint
Eastwood’s “Letters from Iwo Jima” did it in 2006 when there were still just
five slots. It is also possible that the nominations stop right there and we
have a field of eight. If the Academy does go the full ten though, I am still
betting against notable guild nominees “Foxcatcher”, “Guardians
of the Galaxy” and “Wild”. The National Board of Review’s
13-year streak of forecasting a Best Picture nominee ends with “A Most
Violent Year”. Chicago Film Critics Association’s nominee “Under the
Skin” was always facing an uphill battle. Finally, “Unbroken”
was a non-starter that may have been guesstimated for a nomination by the
Broadcast Film Critics Association, but they are going to have to settle being
no better than 90% accurate this year. If things play out as I imagine, your
final Best Picture nominees, in order of likelihood, will be…
1. “Boyhood”
2. “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
3. “Birdman”
4. “The Imitation Game”
5. “American Sniper”
6. “The Theory of Everything”
7. “Whiplash”
8. “Selma”
9. “Gone Girl”
10. “Nightcrawler”
