The calendar year of the Oscar pundit is coming
to a close. The final votes are being turned in this week and after Sunday,
March 2, those who dedicate their time to awards season will begin the
speculation on whether it will be “Into the Woods”, “Interstellar” or some film we
do not know about yet that will be the favorite for Best Picture of 2014. That
can wait until Monday though. For now we will dig into this year’s envelopes
and determine what might be inside.
BEST SUPPORTING
ACTOR
If “American Hustle” had maintained the momentum
it had as the new challenger for those 7-8 days back in January, Bradley Cooper
might have been the one to steal this award. Jonah Hill’s prize was his second
nomination and the same could be said for Barkhad Abdi in his first film role.
Michael Fassbender has picked up a few awards from America’s heartland but
Jared Leto has won every major precursor award leading up to the Oscars except
for BAFTA.
WILL WIN: Jared Leto “Dallas Buyers Club“
IF WE PICKED THE WINNERS: Barkhad Abdi, “Captain Phillips“—Essay by Omer M. Mozaffar
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The toughest category of the night to call is
this one. Lupita Nyong'o has been the clear victor with most critics, though
she was runner-up in New York to her competitor Jennifer Lawrence. This
practically set the stage for game of see-saw in the big
precursor awards: SAG, LA, Chicago and the BFCA for Nyong’o;
NY, BAFTA and the Golden Globes for Lawrence. It may simply come down to knowing that a win for Jennifer would make
her just the third actress in history and sixth actor overall to win
back-to-back Oscars joining Luise Rainer, Spencer Tracy, Katharine Hepburn,
Jason Robards and Tom Hanks. Is the Academy ready to give her that honor at the
age of 23? At this stage in her life, with three nominations and an Oscar
already under her belt, Lawrence could be poised to be the Barry Bonds to Meryl
Streep’s Hank Aaron. Only without the performance enhancers and hatred. Her
time will come again. Lupita’s is now.
WILL WIN: Lupita Nyong’o “12 Years a
Slave”
IF WE PICKED THE WINNERS: Lupita Nyong’o, “12 Years a Slave“—Essay by Glenn Kenny
BEST
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
This is another two-horse race that could be
closer than some believe. “Sideways“, “Slumdog Millionaire“, “The Social Network“,
“Midnight in Paris” and “Django Unchained”—all Oscar-winning scripts that were
also chosen as the best of the year by the Golden Globes and the Broadcast Film
Critics Association. This year both organizations chose Spike Jonze‘s “Her“. On the other hand, for all of
“American Hustle”‘s ten nominations, this seemed like the most likely token they
would throw its way. It’s David O. Russell’s second year in a row as a nominee
for both directing and writing. Maybe it is his time as well. After all, the
Globes and BFCA also agreed on “Up in the Air” in 2009. The considerable backlash
on “American Hustle” (mostly from critics in the argument over which is the real faux
Scorsese film, that or “The Wolf of Wall Street“) may be what give the well-respected
Jonze his own overdue Oscar.
WILL WIN: Spike Jonze “Her”
IF WE PICKED THE WINNERS: “Her” written by Spike Jonze—Essay by Nell Minow
BEST
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
John Ridley‘s adaptation of Solomon Northup’s
story was not eligible for the Writer’s Guild Award. Thus, that award went to Billy Ray
for “Captain Phillips“. Now, with Ridley seemingly back in the driver’s seat,
there is still the looming possibility of an upset in this category. Call it a
hunch more than anything else, but keep one ear open for “Philomena“.
2009’s “Precious” was the last major surprise in this category; winning without a
significant precursor victory. (“Philomena” just won BAFTA and also
was not eligible for the WGA.) “12 Years a Slave” is the favorite but
never underestimate the power of a Weinstein campaign. Do you have the guts to
go for the underdog?
WILL WIN: John Ridley “12 Years a
Slave”
IF WE PICKED THE WINNERS: “Before Midnight” written by Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater—Essay by Brian Tallerico
BEST
ACTOR
This Oscar has been Matthew McConaughey‘s to
lose since he first took the role of Ron Woodroof and dropped to 135 pounds.
Between “Bernie“, “Killer Joe“, “Magic Mike“,
“Mud“, his brief stint in “The Wolf of Wall Street” and all
the love he is receiving on HBO’s “True Detective”, few have had the
kind of run over the past few years that McConaughey has. Though there is some
talk out there that this is the year the Academy will honor four-time nominee
Leonardo DiCaprio, that “his time” argument applies just as much to
the first-time nominee.
WILL WIN: Matthew McConaughey “Dallas
Buyers Club”
IF WE PICKED THE WINNERS: Chiwetel Ejiofor, “12 Years a
Slave”—Essay by Odie Henderson
BEST
ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett has won 28 awards from regional
critic groups and Guilds. Her competition has won a total of four combined. Her
sweep of the majors, as mentioned last week, puts her in the same league as
Daniel Day-Lewis (“There Will Be Blood“), Colin Firth (“The
King’s Speech”), Helen Mirren (“The Queen”), Mo'Nique
(“Precious”) and Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds“).
This may be the easiest call of all the acting categories.
WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett “Blue
Jasmine”
IF WE PICKED THE WINNERS: Cate Blanchett, “Blue Jasmine“—Essay by Susan Wloszczyna
BEST
DIRECTOR
Two years and five months from the start of
principal photography to its release last October, “Gravity” became
Alfonso Cuarón‘s crowning achievement. Dedication plus quality plus a victory
from the Directors Guild makes this the first check one should make in their
Oscar pool. The last seven winners of the Directors Guild Award and 11 of the
last 13 also saw their film win Best Picture.
WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuarón “Gravity”
IF WE PICKED THE WINNERS: Alfonso Cuarón, “Gravity“—Essay by Peter Sobczynski
BEST
PICTURE
Best Picture winners tend to carry a lot of Oscars in other categories in their wake. (“Argo” and “Crash” were the only Best Picture winners
to have less than four total Oscars since 1976’s “Rocky“.) On Sunday night, be prepared to count the number
of Oscars each film wins. “Gravity” is going to be well out in front
after dominating the technical achievements. If it starts getting overtaken
there then maybe the tide will have shifted enough to see “12 Years a
Slave” or even “American Hustle” come through by night’s end. If
the latter can grab those Screenplay and Supporting Actress trophies (as well
as Editing) we could see an upset in the making. But that’s a very specific set
of circumstances. “12 Years a Slave” also seemingly needs to see some
consistency in those categories (and possibly grab a tech win) to complete its
journey to Best Picture. If it loses either of
those, you can call the final award for “Gravity”. If Steve McQueen’s
film wins those majors, you can still probably call the win for Alfonso Cuarón
and his team.
WILL WIN: “Gravity”
IF WE PICKED THE WINNERS: “12 Years a
Slave”—Essay by Matt Zoller Seitz
OTHER
PREDICTIONS
Animated
Feature: “Frozen“
Documentary:
“20 Feet from Stardom“
Foreign
Language Film: “The Great Beauty“
Cinematography:
Emmanuel Lubezki “Gravity”
Costume
Design: Patricia Norris “12 Years a Slave”
Editing:
Christopher Rouse “Captain Phillips”
Makeup:
Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews “Dallas Buyers Club”
Original
Score: Steven Price “Gravity”
Original
Song: Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez “Let it Go” from
“Frozen”
Production
Design: Catherine Martin and Beverley Dunn “The Great Gatsby”
Sound
Editing: Glenn Freemantle “Gravity”
Sound
Mixing: Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead, and Chris Munro “Gravity”
Visual
Effects: Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk, and Neil Corbould
“Gravity”
Animated
Short Film: “Get a Horse!”
Live
Action Short Film: “The Voorman Problem”
Documentary
Short Subject: “The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life”
We’ll be live-tweeting the Oscars Sunday night as each award is handed out. Follow the show Sunday on our Twitter account, @ebertvoices.
