The
buzz has been blasted and much of the Twitter dust has settled now that the
holy trinity of fall film festivals—Telluride, Venice and Toronto—has
wrapped. What have we learned about potential contenders for Best Picture,
the Oscar category which often begets most of the other major nominations and the
one that defines each awards season?
A Song in Their Hearts
Apparently,
everyone is ga-ga for “La La Land.” The Los Angeles-set musical
reinvention from “Whiplash” filmmaker Damien Chazelle left viewers swooning at
all three fests. The current leader in the best-pic race has further
sealed the deal after taking Toronto’s People’s Choice Award this week. Seven
of the past eight winners of that honor were nominated for Oscar’s top prize,
and three—“Slumdog Millionaire,” “The King’s Speech” and “12 Years a Slave”—actually
claimed the Academy Award. A word of caution, however. Only six musicals have
ever won Best Picture—the last one being 2002’s “Chicago.” “Singin’ in the
Rain” from 1952, considered by many as the greatest musical of all time,
received only two noms—Supporting Actress for Jean Hagen and one for its score.
And remember that 2006’s “Dreamgirls” might have collected the most
nominations that year with eight, but was overlooked for Best Picture. In other
words, Oscar voters have a propensity to be musical-adverse and generally
prefer dramas that are unsung.
The Controversy Continues
Revelations
about filmmaker and star Nate Parker’s 1999 rape acquittal continue to hang
over Sundance sensation “The Birth of the Nation,” despite standing ovations at
its Toronto premiere. Of the 22 expert prognosticators on the Gold Derby
awards site, including myself, only six currently list the once-anointed
frontrunner in the top five of the 10 possible slots while seven left
“Nation” out of the running completely. Its fate might ultimately be
left up to actual ticket buyers when the film opens in theaters on October
7th.
Oscars Not Quite So White?
Even
if Parker’s ambitious slave rebellion epic stalls, diversity—something that has
been in short supply at the Oscars for the past two editions—will likely be
represented with such fest-vetted titles as “Loving,” “Moonlight,” “Lion” and
“Queen of Katwe,” the last two being the first and second runner-up for
Toronto’s People’s Choice Award. In the wings are director and star Denzel
Washington’s adaptation of the Broadway play “Fences”; Octavia Spencer, Taraji
P. Henson and Janelle Monae as NASA mathematicians in “Hidden Figures”; “A
United Kingdom” directed by Amma Asante of “Belle” fame; and “Collateral
Beauty” with Will Smith.
Reality Continues to Come on Strong
The
three titles on the Gold Derby site with the best odds to gain a Best Picture
berth—“La La Land,” Kenneth Lonergan’s Sundance hit “Manchester by the Sea” and
Ang Lee’s “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk,” which premieres at the New York
Film Festival on Oct. 13—are fictional stories. But the decade’s boom
in biopics and truth-based stories that dominate awards season continues, and
more than a few are likely to show up on the Oscar ballot this year. They
include the aforementioned “The Birth of a Nation,“ “Loving,” “Lion,” “Queen of
Katwe,” “Hidden Figures” and “A United Kingdom.” Other possibilities are the
recently opened “Sully” and “Snowden,” as well as the summer’s “Florence Foster
Jenkins.” The glowingly reviewed “Jackie,” which captures Jacqueline
Kennedy (Natalie Portman) in the days after her husband’s assassination,
entered the race in Toronto after Fox Searchlight picked it up. Also to come is
Michael Keaton as McDonald’s mastermind Ray Kroc in “The Founder.”
Action and Sci-fi Matter Too
Much
to the chagrin of many fans, last year’s No. 1 box-office topper “Star Wars: A
Force Awakens” failed to land a Best Picture nod. But “The Martian” managed to
squeeze in—as did such action-packed vehicles as “The Revenant” and “Mad Max:
Fury Road.” The Academy began to get a bit more open-minded about genre pics in
2009 when the number of Best Picture nominees expanded to 10. Both “Avatar” and
“District 9” sneaked in and “Inception” followed the next year. When the
rules shifted to allowing between five and 10 nominees, the 2013 space opera
“Gravity” still got in. This time, there are two potential
intergalactic-themed movies that might continue the trend. “Arrival,”
which features Amy Adams as a linguist who tries to communicate with aliens,
was applauded at all three festivals. And the still-to-be-seen “Passengers”
with Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt as space travelers suddenly awakened early
during a 120-year voyage. Possibilities representing the action side of
the equation are the summer sleeper “Hell or High Water,” or “Hacksaw Ridge,” Mel
Gibson’s latest redemption as a filmmaker, based on a true story about a World
War II Army medic who refused to bear arms yet still earned a Medal of Honor.
The Big Question Mark
No
word yet on the quality or even a firm release date for Martin Scorsese’s
“Silence,” a passion project with a supposedly immense running time and
a cast topped by Liam Neeson, Andrew Garfield and Adam Driver. It’s a
historical drama about 17th-century Jesuit missionaries who are
persecuted in Japan for their Christian teachings. The director has said it is
ready to go this fall but Paramount has yet to announce a date. One
presumes that a Scorsese epic will be in the Best Picture conversation, if it
comes out.
The Dark Horse
As
usual, there are plenty of touchy-feely films in the running. That’s what
happens when Quentin Tarantino sits out an awards season. But one
wild-and-wooly game changer that could shake up matters is the festival darling “Toni
Erdmann.” Loaded with a “Lord of the Rings” running time of 162 minutes, the
rollicking German-Austrian comedic import is about the ridiculous lengths that
a prankish father will resort to in order to reconnect with his grown daughter.
Right now, it is considered a no-brainer to compete in the foreign-language
category. But can it show up as a Best Picture choice, too? Nine previous
subtitled features (including Clint Eastwood’s “Letters From Iwo Jima”) have
done so, most recently 2012’s “Amour,” which—like BP nominees “Life is
Beautiful” and “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” before it—went on to win the foreign-language
crown instead. But, again, it might depend on how the public receives
“Toni Erdmann” when it opens in the U.S. on Christmas Day.
