A few weeks ago, the Hollywood trades were observing (or complaining) that, because of the 2008 presidential election, all the big studio Oscar-bait films had been pushed back into December. I mean, how are mere movies going to compete with that cast? “Obama. Biden. McCain. And Sarah Palin as Jaws.”

Last year’s Oscar-winner, “No Country for Old Men,” played the Toronto Film Festival in early September, the New York Film Festival in early October, and began opening around the country November 9. The critics groups split between “NCFOM” (NY) and “There Will Be Blood” (LA, National Society), which was a 2008 release in much of the country.

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This year, it’s anybody’s guess. “Slumdog Millionaire“? “Milk“? “Wall-E“? Something that hasn’t won a critical consensus honor yet? (Right now my hunch is that the National Society of Film Critics will wind up going for either “The Wrestler” or “Wendy and Lucy.” Just a hunch.)

UPDATE: The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, bestower of the Golden Globules, has announced its nominations… and even with a total of ten best picture slots (in Drama and Comedy/Musical categories) it overlooked “Milk,” “The WrestlerandThe Dark Knight,” all of which seem to me like fairly obvious Globuley-Oscary pictures. Sean Penn, Mickey Rourke and Heath Ledger all got acting nods, though. Go fig.

There will be lots to see between now and New Year’s Eve — and I still haven’t caught up with “Milk,” “Happy-Go-Lucky,” “I’ve Loved You So Long,” “Ballast,” “Rachel Getting Married,” “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” — all of which have already opened theatrically. Still to come: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “Frost/Nixon,” “Revolutionary Road,” “The Reader,” “The Wrestler,” “Doubt,” “Seven Pounds“… none of which, however, have made much of an impact with critics groups.

The East Coast and West Coast critics have agreed on a few things here and there: Sean Penn in “Milk,” Sally Hawkins in “Happy-Go-Lucky,” Penelope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona,” “Man on Wire” for documentary, but… well, see for yourself:

Los Angeles Film Critics Association

Picture: “Wall-E
Runner-up: “The Dark Knight

Foreign language film: “Still Life”
Runner-up: “The Class

Documentary film: “Man on Wire
Runner-up: “Waltz with Bashir

Animated film: “Waltz with Bashir

Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire
Runner-up: Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight

Screenplay: Mike Leigh, “Happy-Go-Lucky
Runner-up: Charlie Kaufman, “Synecdoche, New York

Actor: Sean Penn, “Milk
Runner-up: Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler

Actress: Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky
Runner-up: Melissa Leo, “Frozen River

Supporting actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight
Runner-up: Eddie Marsan, “Happy-Go-Lucky

Supporting actress: Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” and “Elegy
Runner-up: Viola Davis, “Doubt

Cinematography: Yu Lik Wai, “Still Life”

New Generation Award: Steve McQueen, “Hunger

(Full list of LAFCA awards here.)

New York Film Critics Circle

Picture: “Milk

Foreign language film: “4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days” (considered a 2007 release by many critics last year, including the National Society)

Non-fiction film: “Man on Wire

Animated film: “Wall-E

Director: Mike Leigh, “Happy-Go-Lucky

Screenplay: Jenny Lumet, “Rachel Getting Married

Actor: Sean Penn, “Milk

Actress: Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky

Supporting Actor: Josh Brolin, “Milk

Supporting Actress: Penelopy Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Cinematography: Anthony Dod Mantle, “Slumdog Millionaire

Best first film: Courtney Hunt, “Frozen River

(Full list of NYCC awards here.)

Jim Emerson

Jim Emerson is the founding editor of RogerEbert.com and has written lots of things in lots of places over lots of years. Mostly involving movies.

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