How Much Attention Does BAFTA Deserve in the Oscar Race?

Like the often meaningless SAG Ensemble prize, there is still an idea in some people's minds that the British Academy of Film and Television (the BAFTAs, handed out this past weekend) is a worthy prognosticator of who will win the Academy Awards. When will they learn? Maybe because it is the last "major" group to throw their two cents in before the final prizes are distributed, but there is too much to suggest that they are not the ones to use to mark your Oscar pool ballot.

BEST PICTURE

In the ongoing flip-flop of whether Oscar will reward "12 Years a Slave" or "Gravity", BAFTA went with Brit Steve McQueen's film. Over the years when the group has mismatched the eventual Oscar winner, they have often gone with the British production (or co-production.) A list that has included Best Picture winners like "Atonement", "The Queen" and even "The Full Monty". Conspiracy issues aside, they also chose "Gravity" as Best British Film at this weekend's ceremony; a head-scratcher that evidently comes down to Brit David Heyman being one of the film's producers (alongside Alfonso and Jonas Cuarón.)

In BAFTA's favor their last five choices for Best Picture did go on to win the Oscar. That's a remarkable streak that began after four years of completely whiffing with two of the aforementioned British films and then on "Brokeback Mountain" and "The Aviator", which were considered favorites at the time. "12 Years a Slave" and "Gravity" fall under the pattern of the 2004 and 2005 races (when "Crash" and "Million Dollar Baby" took top prize); close ones that could go either way and will keep even the most assured of pundits glued until the final award on March 2.

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuarón ("Gravity") took BAFTA's award, continuing a string of awards that includes Los Angeles, The Golden Globes, and the BFCA. He has won more than twice as many director trophies as McQueen, and while BAFTA is a nice addition, it is the Directors Guild prize that continues to loom large. Only twice since 2001 has the DGA winner not won the Oscar and one of those was last year when Ben Affleck was not even nominated by the Academy. Compare that to BAFTA only matching five times in those 12 years and it feels like a race that was over before BAFTA joined in the chorus.

BEST ACTOR & SUPPORTING ACTOR

Flipping the script on their own numbers, each category is 7-for-12 since '01 from BAFTA-to-Oscar. Their winners this year were Chiwetel Ejiofor ("12 Years a Slave") and Barkhad Abdi ("Captain Phillips"), respectively. But there is one major asterisk as to why these victories are meaningless. Neither Matthew McConaughey or Jared Leto were even nominated for "Dallas Buyers Club". At the time of the nominations, the film had not yet opened in Britain. Voters had screeners and it was eligible, so the cloud of its omission could be attributed to either them not liking the movie (which received zero nods) or enough voters simply did not bother to watch it. Seeing as how the last nine Screen Actors Guild winners for Best Actor and five of the last seven for Supporting Actor won the Oscar, McConaughey and Leto remain your favorites despite their BAFTA "snubs".